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In article <t2epfb$3iqf1$53@news.freedyn.de>
trumps bitch <patriot1@protonmail.com> wrote:

...Biden is done, stick a fork in him.

Shades of Obama's economic incompetence. Flash forward to Joe
Biden in 2022. The stench of Obama is everywhere.

It’s not just about how expensive housing became—it’s how fast
it got there. It only took 24 months for U.S. home prices to
soar a staggering 37%. For comparison, the biggest two-year
spike leading into the 2008 housing crash was 29%.

Heading into this spring, the Federal Reserve decided it had
seen enough. The central bank quickly raised interest rates,
which saw the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climb to 6%—up
from 3.2% at the start of the year. Those higher rates, which
have priced out many home shoppers, ultimately ended the
pandemic housing boom. Now we're in a sharp slowdown, with the
Mortgage Bankers Association reporting on Wednesday that
mortgage applications are down 16% on a year-over-year basis.

As this shift occurred, we heard very little from the Fed. Well,
that was until chair Jerome Powell addressed reporters on
Wednesday.

Here's what Powell had to say: "We saw [home] prices moving up
very very strongly for the last couple of years. So that changes
now. And rates have moved up. We are well aware that mortgage
rates have moved up a lot. And you are seeing a changing housing
market. We are watching it to see what will happen. How much
will it really affect residential investment? Not really sure.
How much will it affect housing prices? Not really sure.
Obviously, we are watching that quite carefully…It’s a very
tight market. So prices might keep going up for a while, even in
a world where rates are up. So it’s a complicated situation and
we watch it very carefully. I'd say if you are a homebuyer,
somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit
of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and
demand are back together and where inflation is down low again,
and mortgage rates are low again."

Three things stand out.

1. Powell says homebuyers "need a bit of a reset"

In the housing industry, the total number of active listings is
referred to as "inventory." Since 2014, annual inventory levels
have been declining. That was driven partly by shifting
household preferences (i.e. staying put longer), lower levels of
homebuilding following the 2008 housing crash, and the onset of
millennial first-time home buying. But once the pandemic housing
boom took off, inventory levels began to nosedive. By spring
2021, inventory hit a 40-year low. That has given homebuyers
little choice but to bid up home prices.

It's clear that Powell hopes the housing cooldown caused by
rising mortgage rates will help to push inventory levels up.
Powell suggest it'll help buyers, the thinking being: When
shoppers restart their house hunt, they'll be met with a
friendlier market. Higher inventory levels would give buyers
more time to decide, and reduce the chance they'll have to
engage in a bidding war.

Even before the Fed ramped up its inflation fight, Logan
Mohtashami, lead analyst at HousingWire, was openly rooting for
higher mortgage rates as a means to increase inventory levels.
According to the National Association of Realtors, U.S. housing
inventory inched up to 1.03 million heading into May. But to get
back to a “normal” housing market, Mohtashami says, inventory
would need to rise to 1.52 million to 1.93 million housing
units. Inventory levels nationwide (see chart below) are rising
fast, however, and over half of regional housing markets still
have inventory levels 50% below pre-pandemic levels.

"We need balance…The housing market is still savagely unhealthy
because total inventory levels in America are still below 1.52
million," Mohtashami says.

2. Falling home prices? Powell seems to have suggested it's
possible
Fed Chair Powell raised the hypothetical of home price drops on
Wednesday: "How much will it affect housing prices? Not really
sure. Obviously, we are watching that quite carefully. You’d
think over time...There is a tremendous amount of supply in the
housing market of unfinished homes, and as those come online..."

He then pivoted, and said: "Whereas the supply of finished
homes, inventory of finished homes for sale is incredibly low,
historically low. It's still a very tight market, and prices
might keep going up for a while, even in a world where rates are
up. So it’s a complicated situation and we watch it very
carefully."

For a moment it sounded like Powell was about to say home prices
would fall. Regardless, Powell didn't rule out falling home
prices. That matters. Historically speaking, outside of the
Great Depression and after the housing crash of the 2000s, year-
over-year home price declines almost never happen. But today's
circumstances could lead us into a rare period in which home
prices do indeed fall. It's telling that Powell didn't close the
door on the possibility of home price declines, and instead said
"we are watching that quite carefully."

Last month, Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi told
Fortune that spiked mortgage rates have pushed us into a full-
blown "housing correction." In the near future, Zandi expects
year-over-year home price growth to decline from 20.6% to 0%. In
significantly "overvalued" housing markets, he expects 5% to 10%
home price declines. If a recession does come, Moody's Analytics
said it expects a 5% decline in U.S. home prices and a 15% to
20% decline in significantly "overvalued" housing markets.
(Moody's Analytics determined "overvaluation" by comparing
regional home prices to what local underlying economic
fundamentals like household income would historically support).

Why are home prices now susceptible to a decline? It starts with
the fact that home prices have become detached from underlying
economic fundamentals. Basic economic theory teaches that home
price growth and income growth are interwoven, and neither can
outrun the other for long. That affordability crunch has only
been worsened by soaring mortgage rates. In fact, over the past
six months the typical new mortgage payment has spiked 52%,
according to Zonda, a real estate analytics company.

Home prices can fall, however, but for it to happen inventory
will likely need to rise much higher. Once U.S. inventory levels
climb above 2 million units, Mohtashami says, home prices could
begin to fall nationally on a year-over-year basis.

If the Fed's "over-tightening" causes a recession, Ralph
McLaughlin, chief economist at Kukun, a real estate data and
analytics company, says inventory could reach levels that allow
home prices to fall.

"It’s looking increasingly likely we’re approaching a sharp
inflection point in the market," McLaughlin tells Fortune.

3. Powell explicitly said he'd like to see mortgage rates fall
The central bank raised interest rates to both halt the pandemic
housing boom and to rein in runaway inflation. Once the Fed has
inflation back under control, elevated mortgage rates could
begin to recede.

That said, home shoppers eager for mortgage rate relief might be
waiting for a while. As of last week, the Consumer Price Index
was at 8.6%. The Fed won't let up on inflation fighting until
the CPI returns to 2%. On Thursday, the Fed made it clear this
fight could last well into 2024.

Hungry for more housing data? Follow me on Twitter at
@NewsLambert.

https://fortune.com/2022/06/16/housing-market-reset-federal- reserve-could-see-home-prices-fall/

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