XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.politics.democrats.senate, alt.politics.republicans
XPost: talk.politics.guns

In order to win reelection, Montana Democrat Jon Tester needs to defy
recent history. "Montanans pride themselves in splitting tickets, but you
have to give them a reason to do that," he told NPR.

Americans are finding fewer reasons to do just that. In 2016, every
competitive Senate race tipped to the party that won the presidential
race. And in 2020, just one senator — Maine Republican Susan Collins — won reelection in a state where the opposing party won the presidential race.
In other words, split-ticket voting is at all-time lows in modern
politics.

Tester and Ohio Democrat Sherrod Brown are the two Democratic incumbents running for reelection in states where the Republican nominee, likely
former President Donald Trump, is favored to win again, and by wide
margins. Trump won Montana 57% to 41% and Ohio 53% to 45%.

If either Tester or Brown loses, that alone could cost the majority. With
that map, Republican campaign operatives like Steven Law, who runs the
Senate Leadership Fund super PAC, are bullish about a GOP takeover.

"It will be hard for any of these senators in those states, these
Democrats, to cobble together enough swing voters to put them over the top
as long as we've got a credible candidate and we run an effective
campaign," Law said.

https://www.npr.org/2023/12/26/1219328342/2-senate-democrats-fighting-for- reelection-in-states-where-trump-dominates?ft=nprml&f=191676894

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