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In article <ui9iu4$74gu$
9@dont-email.me>
Voters in battleground states said they trusted Donald J. Trump over
President Biden on the economy, foreign policy and immigration, as
Mr. Biden’s multiracial base shows signs of fraying.
President Biden is trailing Donald J. Trump in five of the six most
important battleground states one year before the 2024 election,
suffering from enormous doubts about his age and deep
dissatisfaction over his handling of the economy and a host of other
issues, new polls by The New York Times and Siena College have
found.
The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest
Republican rival, by margins of four to 10 percentage points among
registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and
Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two
percentage points, the poll found.
Trump Is Ahead in Five of Six Swing States
Margins are calculated using unrounded figures.
NEVADA+10 REP
Biden
41%
Trump
52
GEORGIA+6 REP
Biden
43%
Trump
49
ARIZONA+5 REP
Biden
44%
Trump
49
MICHIGAN+5 REP
Biden
43%
Trump
48
PENNSYLVANIA+4 REP
Biden
44%
Trump
48
WISCONSIN+2 DEM
Biden
47%
Trump
45
Across the six battlegrounds — all of which Mr. Biden carried in
2020 — the president trails by an average of 48 to 44 percent.
Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority
of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. The
survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and
multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying.
Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in
2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the
electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.
Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point,
his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his
advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural
regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr.
Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage
that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.
Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are
now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a
level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern
times.
Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six
in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in
Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.
In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two
parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was
behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six.
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Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump are both deeply — and similarly — unpopular, according to the poll. But voters who overwhelmingly said the nation
was on the wrong track are taking out their frustrations on the
president.
“The world is falling apart under Biden,” said Spencer Weiss, a 53- year-old electrical substation specialist in Bloomsburg, Pa., who
supported Mr. Biden in 2020 but is now backing Mr. Trump, albeit
with some reservations. “I would much rather see somebody that I
feel can be a positive role-model leader for the country. But at
least I think Trump has his wits about him.”
Mr. Biden still has a year to turn the situation around. Economic
indicators are up even if voters do not agree with them. Mr. Trump
remains polarizing. And Mr. Biden’s well-funded campaign will aim to
shore up his demographic weak spots. The president’s advisers have
repeatedly noted that Democrats successfully limited the party’s
losses in 2022 despite Mr. Biden’s poor approval ratings at the
time.
Still, the survey shows how Mr. Biden begins the next year at a
deficit even though Mr. Trump has been indicted on criminal charges
four times and faces trial in 2024. If the results in the poll were
the same next November, Mr. Trump would be poised to win more than
300 Electoral College votes, far above the 270 needed to take the
White House.
For Mr. Biden, who turns 81 later this month, being the oldest
president in American history stands out as a glaring liability. An overwhelming 71 percent said he was “too old” to be an effective
president — an opinion shared across every demographic and
geographic group in the poll, including a remarkable 54 percent of
Mr. Biden’s own supporters.
In contrast, only 19 percent of supporters of Mr. Trump, who is 77,
viewed him as too old, and 39 percent of the electorate overall.
Concerns about the president’s advancing age and mental acuity — 62
percent also said Mr. Biden does not have the “mental sharpness” to
be effective — are just the start of a sweeping set of Biden
weaknesses in the survey results.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/05/us/politics/biden-trump-2024-
poll.html
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