• Re: Poland's populist ruling party set to lose its majority, exit poll

    From Sal LeGrange@21:1/5 to All on Sun Oct 15 17:21:59 2023
    XPost: soc.culture.polish, talk.politics.guns, talk.politics.misc
    XPost: alt.politics.liberalism, can.politics, sac.politics

    Power in Poland is up for grabs, after an exit poll predicted the
    populist ruling party would lose its parliamentary majority in a
    bitter and high-stakes national election.

    The Law and Justice party, known by its Polish acronym PiS, was
    projected to win the most seats after Sunday’s vote.

    But it fell some way short of a parliamentary majority, and the
    opposition bloc – led by former Polish prime minister and European
    Council president Donald Tusk – appeared to have a path to power if
    it struck deals with smaller parties.

    Both Tusk and Jaroslaw Kaczynski, the PiS chairman and Poland’s de
    facto leader, attempted to declare victory on Sunday night. In
    reality, however, days of negotiations may lie ahead until the
    make-up of the country’s new government becomes clear.

    “The exit poll results give us the fourth victory in the history of
    our party in the parliamentary elections and the third victory in a
    row; this is a great success of our formation and our project for
    Poland,” Kaczynski told supporters.


    A smaller coalition called Third Way may end up as kingmakers. The
    centrist bloc has criticized both major parties, arguing that
    neither represents Poland’s best path forward. But its leader Szymon Hołownia has long lambasted the performance of PiS, and insisted he
    would not pursue a pact with the incumbent party.

    The outcome of this election could have major ramifications for
    Poland’s future direction, the balance of power in the European
    Union and the future of the war in Ukraine.

    PiS, which has been mired in bitter spats with the EU during its
    eight years in power, was seeking a third consecutive electoral
    success – an unprecedented feat since Poland regained its
    independence from the Soviet Union.

    The party has been accused by the EU and Polish opposition figures
    of dismantling Poland’s democratic institutions during its time in
    power. PiS has brought the Polish judiciary, public media and
    cultural bodies under greater government control, and has taken a
    hard line against abortion access and LGBTQ+ rights.

    During a bitter campaign, the party shot back at Tusk’s opposition
    coalition, claiming the former leader would be subservient to
    Brussels and Berlin if he returned to power.

    High inflation and the security of Poland’s borders have been front
    of mind for voters during the campaign. Developments were also
    watched in Kyiv, after a tense period that saw relations between the
    two close allies sour.

    Poland has been a crucial partner to Ukraine as it fights Russian
    forces in its east, but Warsaw was intensely critical of Ukraine’s
    government during a dispute over the imports of Ukrainian grain.

    Voters were electing members of both houses of Poland’s parliament,
    with 231 seats in the Sejm – Warsaw’s lower house – needed for a
    party to clinch power outright.

    https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/europe/poland-election-voting-
    intl/index.html

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  • From A. Filip@21:1/5 to All on Mon Oct 16 01:01:39 2023
    XPost: soc.culture.polish, talk.politics.misc, alt.politics.liberalism
    XPost: can.politics

    Sal LeGrange <remailer@domain.invalid> pisze:
    Power in Poland is up for grabs, after an exit poll predicted the
    populist ruling party would lose its parliamentary majority in a
    bitter and high-stakes national election.
    […] https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/15/europe/poland-election-voting-intl/index.html

    According to estimates (exit polls [A]) non-PiS ruling parliamentary
    majority requires the three party coalition (KO+3D+L) with only one
    combination possible. PiS majority requires two party coalition (PiS+3D)
    with second combination (PiS+L) likely to also create majority.

    1. Never ever treat "quite likely" (non-PiS _working_ parliamentary
    majority) as "guaranteed" in Realpolitik :-)
    2. AFAIR some voters had been "reluctant" to declare voting PiS.
    Exit polls _MAY_ have errors bigger than declared/expected.
    It is not very likely (yet again) but it is possible
    especially in case of Konfederacja. Konfederacja have been accused
    of "too much sympathy" towards Russia and "skepticism" towards
    Ukraine.

    [A] Estimates of MP numbers based on exit polls: https://www.rmf24.pl/raporty/raport-wybory-parlamentarne-2023/news-wybory-2023-jaki-moze-byc-podzial-na-mandaty-w-sejmie,nId,7089035#crp_state=1
    Prawo i Sprawiedliwość [Law and Justice] (PiS) - 200,
    Koalicja Obywatelska [Citizen Coalition] (KO/PO) - 163 mandaty,
    Trzecia Droga [Third Way] (3D) - 55 mandaty,
    Lewica [Left] (L) - 30 mandatów,
    Konfederacja [Confederacy](K) - 12 mandatów.


    --
    A. Filip
    | W moim domu jestem sługą, w obcym - panem. (Przysłowie ormiańskie)

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