XPost: sci.physics, alt.global-warming
On 6/8/2024 1:02 PM, Jim Pennino wrote:
In sci.physics Loran <loran@invalid.net> wrote:
Jim Pennino wrote:
In sci.physics Dave <dwickford@yahoo.com> wrote:
Going forward in technology and society, and mindful of the climate
emergency,
The Earth's climate has been in a continuous state of flux for about 4.5 >>> billion years and has gone through numerous icehouse and greenhouse
states.
A greenhouse state is when no continental glaciers exist anywhere and an >>> icehouse state is when continental glaciers do exist.
For 85% of its history, The Earth has been in a greenhouse state.
Understanding Earth's Deep Past. 2011-08-02. doi:10.17226/13111.
ISBN 978-0-309-20915-1
Earth is currently in an icehouse state with continental glaciers present >>> on both poles.
Sounds to me like business as usual for the Earth's climate.
Consider:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/larrybell/2011/05/03/breaking-news-the-climate-actually-changes/
"Fossil records reveal that atmospheric CO2 levels around 600 million
years ago were about 7,000 parts per million, compared with 379 ppm in
2005. Then approximately 480 million years ago those levels gradually
dropped to 4,000 ppm over about 100 million years, while average
temperatures remained at a steady 72 degrees. They then jumped rapidly
to 4,500 ppm and guess what! Temperatures dove to an estimated average
similar to today, even though the CO2 level was around twelve times
higher than now. Yes, as CO2 went up, temperatures plummeted.
About 438 million years ago, atmospheric CO2 dropped from 4,500 ppm to
3,000 ppm, yet according to fossil records, world temperatures shot
rapidly back up to an average 72 degrees. So regardless of whether CO2
levels were 7,000 ppm or 3,000 ppm, temperatures rose and fell
independently.
Over those past 600 million years there have been only three periods,
including now, when Earth's average temperature has been as low as 54
degrees. One occurred about 315 million years ago, during a
45-million-year-long cool spell called the Late Carboniferous period,
which established the beginning of most of our planet's (gasp)
coalfields. Both CO2 and temperatures shot back up at the end of it just
when the main Mesozoic dinosaur era was commencing. CO2 levels rose to
between 1,200 ppm and 1,800 ppm, and temperatures again returned to the
average 72 degrees that Earth seemed to prefer.
Around 180 million years ago, CO2 rocketed up from about 1,200 ppm to
2,500 ppm. And would you believe it? This coincided again with another
big temperature dive from 72 degrees to about 61 degrees. Then at the
border between the Jurassic period when T. Rex ruled and the Cretaceous
period that followed, CO2 levels dropped again, while temperatures
soared back to 72 degrees and remained at that level (about 20 degrees
higher than now) until long after prodigious populations of dinosaurs
became extinct. And flatulent as those creatures may possibly have been,
at least there is no evidence that they burned coal or drove SUVs.
Based upon a variety of proxy indicators, such as ice core and
oceansediment samples, our planet has endured large climate swings on a
number of occasions over the past 1.5 million years due to a number of
natural causes. Included are seasonal warming and cooling effects of
plant growth cycles, greenhouse gases and aerosols emitted from volcanic
eruptions, Earth orbit and solar changes, and other contributors with
combined influences. Yet atmospheric CO2 levels have remained relatively
low over the past 650,000 years, even during the six previous
interglacial periods when global temperatures were as much as 9 degrees
warmer than temperatures we currently enjoy.
Over the past 400,000 years, much of the Northern Hemisphere has been
covered by ice up to miles thick at regular intervals lasting about
100,000 years each. Much shorter interglacial cycles like our current
one lasting 12,000 to 18,000 years have offered reprieves from bitter
cold. Yes, from this perspective current temperatures are abnormally
warm. By about 12,000 to 15,000 years ago Earth had warmed enough to
halt the advance of glaciers and cause sea levels to rise, and the
average temperature has gradually increased on a fairly constant basis
ever since, with brief intermissions."
With significant changes taking tens of thousand of years, where is
the "emergency"?
We're just a smidge overdue on the 12,000 year solar micronova cycle.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-1q5cW_V3M
TRIPLE CATASTROPHE - 6000-Year Cycle Happening Now
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adh8369
Heinrich event ice discharge and the fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
YUXIN ZHOU
HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0002-3523-8524 AND JERRY F. MCMANUS
HTTPS://ORCID.ORG/0000-0002-7365-1600Authors Info & Affiliations
SCIENCE
30 May 2024
Vol 384, Issue 6699
pp. 983-986
DOI: 10.1126/science.adh8369
Editor’s summary
Will ice mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet caused by climate
warming disrupt large-scale ocean circulation? Zhou et al. reconstructed iceberg production rates during the massive calving episodes of the last glacial period, called Heinrich events, when icebergs did affect ocean circulation. The authors found that present-day Greenland Ice Sheet
calving rates are as high as during some of those events.
https://cosmosmagazine.com/science/could-the-day-after-tomorrow-come-true/
A German scientist has echoed the warnings of the film The Day After
Tomorrow, finding that a major oceanic circulation system is becoming
more unstable – with concerning implications for the climate.
A study published in Nature Climate Change observes that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) – a massive ocean current
system that circulates through the Atlantic – may have been losing
stability over the past century, due to the influx of melted freshwater
into the ocean.
This is concerning because the AMOC is responsible for the Gulf Stream,
a swift current that brings warm water masses from tropical regions to
the northern hemisphere. Because it redistributes heat, this circulation
system is not only responsible for creating mild temperatures across
Europe but also influencing weather systems across the world.
“The Atlantic Meridional Overturning really is one of our planet’s key circulation systems,” says Niklas Boers, the study’s author from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Free University Berlin
and Exeter University.
If it collapses, it could have impacts such as significantly cooling
Europe and affecting tropical monsoon systems.
“We already know from some computer simulations and from data from
Earth’s past, so-called paleoclimate proxy records, that the AMOC can
exhibit – in addition to the currently attained strong mode – an alternative, substantially weaker mode of operation,” Boers says.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2402.14877
Machine-learning prediction of tipping and collapse of the Atlantic
Meridional Overturning Circulation
Shirin Panahi, Ling-Wei Kong, Mohammadamin Moradi, Zheng-Meng Zhai,
Bryan Glaz, Mulugeta Haile, Ying-Cheng Lai
Recent research on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
(AMOC) raised concern about its potential collapse through a tipping
point due to the climate-change caused increase in the freshwater input
into the North Atlantic. The predicted time window of collapse is
centered about the middle of the century and the earliest possible start
is approximately two years from now. More generally, anticipating a
tipping point at which the system transitions from one stable steady
state to another is relevant to a broad range of fields. We develop a machine-learning approach to predicting tipping in noisy dynamical
systems with a time-varying parameter and test it on a number of systems including the AMOC, ecological networks, an electrical power system, and
a climate model. For the AMOC, our prediction based on simulated
fingerprint data and real data of the sea surface temperature places the
time window of a potential collapse between the years 2040 and 2065.
https://www.wgbh.org/news/commentary/2021-03-24/weve-known-for-years-global-warming-could-lead-to-a-new-ice-age-why-is-no-one-doing-anything
Call it a cascade of calamitous events.
According to scientists, a “cold blob” of water has formed south of Greenland. The blob’s origins can be traced to rapidly melting glaciers, which in turn is the consequence of global warming. The blob could
impede the flow of the Gulf Stream, which carries warm water north. And
if that happens, the temperature in Europe may drop steeply, hurricanes
may become more intense, and sea levels on the East Coast of the United
States may rise even more rapidly than they are already.
“We’re all wishing it’s not true,” Peter de Menocal, a scientist at the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, told The New York Timesearlier
this month. “Because if that happens, it’s just a monstrous change.”
A monstrous change indeed — and one that we’ve known about for decades.
The possibility that climate change could flip and, in just a matter of
years, plunge part of the world into a new ice age is something that has occasionally made its way into the media. Yet the world has done very
little about it.
http://www.longrangeweather.com/climate_change.htm
Recently, John Coleman, the founder of the Weather Channel, stated that, "manmade global warming is the GREATEST SCAM IN HISTORY!"
He went on to add, "I am amazed, appalled and highly offended by this
theory of global warming based on fraudulent science."
He said this, folks, not me. (But, I certainly agree with Dr. Coleman.)
Coleman’s climatological opinion has been recently supported by a top observatory that has been measuring a rather dramatic decrease in
sunspot activity. These scientists are predicting that global
temperatures will drop by at least two degrees in the next 20 years.
Our friend, Robert Felix, author of "Not By Fire, But By Ice," believes
that this significant cool down could possibly be the start of at least
another "Little Ice Age," possibly a new GREAT ICE AGE, which is overdue following 11,500 years of generally warmer than normal global temperatures.
This latest period of naturally-occurring warming peaked a decade ago in
1998. It was the strongest such cycle of warming since the days of Leif Ericcson around 1,000 A.D. At the time, the mighty Vikings were actually farming parts of Greenland growing wheat, vegetables and raising cattle.
They actually grew tomatoes and grapes!
Robert Felix gives this warning: "Living in the northern U.S. could
eventually be hazardous to your health!"
He goes on to say, "the next major ice age could begin any day...next
week, next month or next year." (Get that snowblower tuned-up.)
Felix believes that someday soon we’ll be "buried beneath nine stories
of ice and snow as the bitter climate of Greenland descends upon Canada, Britain, Norway, Sweden, the U.S. and other northern regions ---
practically overnight."
It’s all part of a dependable, predictable, natural cycle of climate
that returns "like clockwork" every 11,500 years.
--- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05
* Origin: fsxNet Usenet Gateway (21:1/5)