AXAU01 APRF 240139
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0138 UTC 24/03/2022

Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 19.8S
Longitude: 107.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (251 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 993 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds: nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: nm ( km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/3.0/W1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)

FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06: 24/0600: 20.2S 107.0E: 045 (080): 030 (055): 998
+12: 24/1200: 21.1S 106.9E: 055 (105): 030 (055): 1001
+18: 24/1800: 22.1S 106.9E: 065 (125): 030 (055): 1001
+24: 25/0000: 23.2S 106.9E: 080 (145): 030 (055): 1001
+36: 25/1200: 26.7S 107.9E: 100 (180): 035 (065): 996
+48: 26/0000: 28.6S 109.2E: 120 (225): 040 (075): 989
+60: 26/1200: 27.0S 110.1E: 135 (250): 040 (075): 992
+72: 27/0000: 25.1S 110.1E: 150 (275): 040 (075): 992
+96: 28/0000: 24.9S 109.7E: 160 (300): 035 (065): 994
+120: 29/0000: 26.1S 110.6E: 190 (350): 030 (055): 997

REMARKS:
Ex-tropical cyclone Charlotte has weakened rapidly in the last 12 hours due encountering strong shear, dry air intrusion and cooler SSTs. The LLCC is now exposed with deep convection sheared well away to the southeast.

Dvorak analysis using shear pattern gives DT=1.5. MET is 3.0, adjusted to 2.5 using PT. FT=2.0, but CI is held at 3.0 due to constraints. The current intensity is based on the 23Z SMOS pass indicating lack of gales in any of the quadrants. CIMSS ADT has T1.7, NOAA ADT has CI=2.5 but raw T=1.7 based on shear pattern. AiDT is at 42 kn 1-minute wind. SATCON is 56 kn 1-minute wind.

Ex-Charlotte will continue moving towards the south-southwest over the next two days, before being steered back towards the north during the weekend.

An upper trough to the system's southwest may provide sufficient support for gales to redevelop on the western and southern quadrants from late Friday. Despite, this the system is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
$$
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (21:1/175)