ACUS11 KWNS 141802
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141802=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-142030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1545
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141802Z - 142030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few instances of marginally severe hail and damaging
gusts are possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic through the
afternoon. A watch is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are evolving
eastward across parts of southern PA into eastern WV and western VA
this afternoon -- where a 1-inch hail report occurred earlier.
During the next few hours, this activity will generally
spread/develop eastward across the Mid-Atlantic region, where a
plume of diurnally steepening low-level lapse rates is developing.
Given around 30 kt of effective shear and the increasingly unstable pre-convective environment, marginally severe hail and locally
damaging gusts are possible with any stronger multicell clusters or
transient supercells that develop. The overall severe threat should
remain too isolated/sporadic for a watch.

..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_TLgr3jYPwTXsd_nlJZ3SplKlAtOAT2_UOuNLqXjN2jVdyykFPHCnEzUJ__nMtljjoXju5RAz= JEX30ThO-OZ62IezFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON 39487880 40157821 40647748 41087677 41287623 41367572
41357506 41087456 40717429 40247434 39647462 39087498
38637528 37837584 37707591 37407649 37387808 37667905
38187935 38657928 39487880=20


=3D =3D =3D
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