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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1405

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 3 19:17:47 2023
    ACUS11 KWNS 031917
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 031917=20
    COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-032115-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1405
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0217 PM CDT Mon Jul 03 2023

    Areas affected...parts of far northeastern NV...southeastern
    ID...northern UT...southwestern WY...and far northwestern CO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 031917Z - 032115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong to severe gusts are possible this afternoon
    across parts of far northeastern Nevada, southeastern Idaho,
    northern Utah, southwestern Wyoming, and far northwestern Colorado.
    A watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Terrain-forced convective development is underway this
    afternoon, with several clusters of storms ongoing across northern
    Utah. Short-term RAP forecast profiles and a recent ACARS profile
    from Salt Lake City show a deep, well-mixed boundary layer with an
    inverted-V thermodynamic profile and relatively weak deep-layer
    shear. Given the large DCAPE, strongly negatively buoyant outflow is
    expected, producing a few downbursts with strong to severe wind
    gusts. Additional convective development is possible with deepening
    cumulus on visible satellite imagery across far northeastern Nevada,
    which would also pose a damaging wind threat. Storms should wane
    with loss of diurnal heating this evening.

    ..Supinie/Grams.. 07/03/2023

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9dwKlFV_woZttWp5eYXamCmnwixyQ5mPJnkUEhnFGdlGLQJd1KspuJBAzRWa_jpNraAyi6lNj= QHUdcKIOqbzPEE0vaM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...PIH...LKN...

    LAT...LON 39601213 39841313 40261373 40601414 41541445 42171415
    42501378 42821308 42851113 42601012 41740873 41210862
    40600876 40120892 39760980 39651070 39681077 39601213=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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