ACUS01 KWNS 232159
SWODY1
SPC AC 232157
Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023
Valid 232000Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
AMENDED FOR INCREASING SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail and strong/damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two, are expected across
the North-central High Plains, with other severe storms across the
southern Plains today and tonight.
...Amended discussion...
Have increased hail/wind probabilities over parts of north TX due to
the ongoing/developing severe clusters to the north and southeast of
the greater DFW Metroplex vicinity.
...Discussion...
Only a few minor modifications of the previous outlook.
1) Added 2-percent tornado probabilities from northeast CO southward
through CO/KS into the TX Panhandle.
2) Enlarged the significant hail area over the southern High Plains.
3) Adjusted the Enhanced Risk (30-percent hail) westward to the
ongoing severe thunderstorm activity over central WY.
4) Spatial enlarging of the 5-percent wind probabilities over
eastern OK.
..Smith.. 06/23/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1156 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2023/
...North-central Plains...
No changes for this region aside from Marginal-related spatial
adjustments across Wyoming. The most concentrated, well-organized
severe threat still appears to be over parts of the High Plains from southeastern Montana to western Nebraska this afternoon and evening.
Scattered thunderstorms should evolve upscale from initial multicell
and supercell development near the Bighorn and Laramie Ranges, with
an early multimodal threat transitioning toward severe wind (locally
65+ kt gusts possible) with time this evening and overnight.
A relatively narrow corridor of favorable airmass heating, warm-advection-related recovery, and upslope flow into higher
terrain will support afternoon/evening severe potential. Activity
should develop over and near the Wyoming ranges this afternoon as
strengthening large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear spread over
the region ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, conterminous with
favorably, diabatically minimized MLCINH. Initial mixed-mode
convection will offer all severe hazards, with tornadoes and
significant hail being a threat from any sustained supercell(s).
Steep low/middle-level lapse rates and favorable boundary-layer
moisture will contribute to peak/preconvective MLCAPE ranging from
near 3000 J/kg over the northeastern Colorado/southwestern Nebraska
to 1000-2000 J/kg in a small part of northeastern Wyoming and
southeastern Montana. Lengthening and well-curved hodographs are
forecast to develop as low-level cyclogenesis proceeds, in support
of the hail/tornado threat. One or two MCSs should evolve this
evening, accessing theta-e advection and moisture transport related
to a 40-45 kt LLJ, with aggregation of cold pools rendering an
increasingly widespread threat for damaging and severe gusts. The
severe risk should continue eastward across Nebraska/South Dakota
much of the night.
...Southern Plains including West/North Texas and Oklahoma...
A cluster of strong/severe storms is ongoing across west-central
Oklahoma at late morning. These storms continue to exhibit
upscale-growing trends aside from a morning history of isolated
severe-caliber wind gusts. The potential for wind damage and
isolated hail may persist east-southeastward across southern/central
Oklahoma and nearby north Texas this afternoon.
Otherwise, farther west, widely scattered thunderstorms are expected
to redevelop by mid/late afternoon near the dryline/lee trough
across far west/northwest Texas including the Texas South Plains.
These initially high-based storms will progress eastward, with some
of these storms potentially interacting with the outflow-reinforced
baroclinic zone via the early day storms. Storms will gradually
encounter greater low-level moisture as they move eastward, with
surface dewpoints into the 60s and lower 70s F, with 2500-3500 J/kg
MLCAPE near and east of the Caprock.
Though near-surface flow will be modest, strong veering with height
will enable enough deep-layer shear (effective values around 35-40
kt) for a blend of early multicell and supercell modes, offering
both large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts. A gradual coalescence
of cold pools from multiple storms is probable, with a severe risk
probably continuing eastward this evening into the overnight across
north Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma.
...Eastern Colorado/western Kansas...
Severe risk adjustments have been made across the region given
trends in short-term observations/guidance. Concern exists for a
viable potential for intense storm development, even if somewhat
isolated, by mid/late afternoon, within a supercell-favorable
environment including steep lapse rates, strong buoyancy and 40+ kt
effective shear.
...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva...
Ahead of the upper low centered over Ohio/Lower Great Lakes, a moist environment with moderately enhanced low-level southerly winds may
support a few stronger/locally severe storms this afternoon across
the region.
$$
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at
cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)