:Product: 3-Day Forecast :Issued: 2019 May 17 1230 UTC # Prepared by the
U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # A. NOAA
Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast The greatest observed 3 hr
Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA Scale levels). The greatest
expected 3 hr Kp for May 17-May 19 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale G1). NOAA Kp
index breakdown May 17-May 19 2019 May 17 May 18 May 19 00-03UT 3 2 2
03-06UT 1 3 1 06-09UT 1 2 1 09-12UT 1 2 1 12-15UT 3 1 1 15-18UT 3 2 1
18-21UT 2 2 2 21-00UT 5 (G1) 2 2 Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storming is likely on 17 May due to anticipated CME arrival. B. NOAA Solar
Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast Solar radiation, as observed
by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was below S-scale storm level
thresholds. Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 17-May 19 2019 May 17
May 18 May 19 S1 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater
solar radiation storms are expected. No significant active region activity
favorable for radiation storm production is forecast. C. NOAA Radio
Blackout Activity and Forecast No radio blackouts were observed over the
past 24 hours. Radio Blackout Forecast for May 17-May 19 2019 May 17 May
18 May 19 R1-R2 1% 1% 1% R3 or greater 1% 1% 1% Rationale: No R1 (Minor)
or greater radio blackouts are expected. No significant active region
flare activity is forecast.


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