• Days to Double

    From Lee Lofaso@2:203/2 to All on Tue Mar 31 02:21:40 2020
    Hello Everybody,

    The coronavirus in the US is moving almost as fast
    as Speedy Gonzales himself.
    Despite the wall The Orange One is trying to build.
    Just look at the numbers, as compiled by a blogger
    somewhere in the blogosphere -


    Days to Double
    --------------

    In each state.

    On the 24th, 25 states gained 25% or more
    in new cases over the day before, and 25 states
    plus DC increased by less than 25%.

    At 25% daily increase, it takes about 3 days
    to double. By the 15th day after the start,
    that's a 28 times increase.

    On the 29th, 18 states reported daily increases
    of 25% or more, 23 states reported increases of
    15-24.99 percent, and 9 plus DC reported increases
    between 5-14.99 percent.

    At a 15% doubling rate, that takes about 5 days
    to double, or 8 times increase after 15 days.

    IF we were continuing to have daily increase
    of 25%, in 30 days the increase would be 784-fold,
    or over 100 million cases and 1.5 million deaths.

    I'm hoping for a 15% average; in 30 days this
    would be a 64-fold increase, or about 10 million
    cases and about 120000 deaths.

    BUT most states aren't there yet.

    That's why we need to continue the restrictions.

    -=end of blogger rant=-


    Let's do a little math.
    I hear there are several scientists in this forum.
    Certainly at least one of them is good at working with numbers.
    The US has a population of some 330 million people.
    How many people does it take to become infected by the virus
    in order for the herd immunity threshold to be reached?
    That is without a vaccine having been found.

    herd immunity threshold = 1 - (1/Ro)

    Where Ro = 2.5 for the coronavirus

    Coronavirus Ro estimated to be between 2-3.
    At 2.5 that would be 60% of population.
    At 3.0 that would be much higher percentage of population.

    The way I look at it, by the time a vaccine is found,
    if a vaccine can be found, it won't really matter.
    At least not for anybody in the USA.

    May we all RIP.

    --Lee

    --
    Every Bottom Needs A Top

    --- MesNews/1.08.05.00-gb
    * Origin: news://eljaco.se (2:203/2)
  • From alexander koryagin@2:5020/2140.2 to Lee Lofaso on Tue Mar 31 15:20:41 2020
    Hi, Lee Lofaso!
    I read your message from 31.03.2020 01:21

    LL> On the 24th, 25 states gained 25% or more
    LL> in new cases over the day before, and 25 states
    LL> plus DC increased by less than 25%.

    What do you think can it be in the following way?

    This virus could have been widely spread in the US for last months, as
    usual cold virus. And most population have been ill with it in easy and
    mild forms. So, if you now start mass checking for COVID19 every day you
    will find mass of people with the virus, often without symptoms.

    And some inaccurate people can say that the virus spreads itself across
    the US in lighting speed. In reality this virus a casual cold disease,
    no more mortal than others. The "normal" number of deaths from pneumonia
    in the US (in 2017) 50000. COVID is far from that numbers.

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/pneumonia.htm

    The panic is being spread artificially.

    Bye, Lee!
    Alexander Koryagin
    fido7.fidonews 2020
    --- FIDOGATE 5.1.7ds
    * Origin: Pushkin's BBS (2:5020/2140.2)
  • From Kees van Eeten@2:280/5003.4 to alexander koryagin on Tue Mar 31 14:05:52 2020
    Hello alexander!

    31 Mar 20 15:20, you wrote to Lee Lofaso:

    The panic is being spread artificially.

    You may be in for a surprise in the coming weeks.

    Kees

    --- GoldED+/LNX 1.1.5--b20180707
    * Origin: As for me, all I know is that, I know nothing. (2:280/5003.4)
  • From Dale Shipp@1:261/1466 to Alexander Koryagin on Wed Apr 1 02:41:08 2020
    On 03-31-20 15:20, Alexander Koryagin <=-
    spoke to Lee Lofaso about Days to Double <=-

    And some inaccurate people can say that the virus spreads itself
    across the US in lighting speed. In reality this virus a casual cold disease, no more mortal than others. The "normal" number of deaths
    from pneumonia in the US (in 2017) 50000. COVID is far from that
    numbers.

    The current models state that before Covid-19 runs its course we can
    expect between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the USA -- and that low a
    number only with nation wide restrictive measures such as social
    distancing and stay-in-place. Given that such measures are not being
    applied or even suggested in much of the country, the deaths may well be
    even higher.

    Dale Shipp
    fido_261_1466 (at) verizon (dot) net
    (1:261/1466)


    ... Shipwrecked on Hesperus in Columbia, Maryland. 02:44:38, 01 Apr 2020
    ___ Blue Wave/DOS v2.30

    --- Maximus/NT 3.01
    * Origin: Owl's Anchor (1:261/1466)
  • From alexander koryagin@2:5020/2140.2 to Dale Shipp on Wed Apr 1 13:32:38 2020
    Hi, Dale Shipp!
    I read your message from 01.04.2020 01:41

    AK>> And some inaccurate people can say that the virus spreads
    AK>> itself across the US in lighting speed. In reality this
    AK>> virus a casual cold disease, no more mortal than others.
    AK>> The "normal" number of deaths from pneumonia in the US (in
    AK>> 2017) 50000. COVID is far from that numbers.
    DS> The current models state that before Covid-19 runs its course
    DS> we can expect between 100,000 and 240,000 deaths in the USA --
    DS> and that low a number only with nation wide restrictive
    DS> measures such as social distancing and stay-in-place. Given
    DS> that such measures are not being applied or even suggested in
    DS> much of the country, the deaths may well be even higher.

    Also it is important not to put in one pile all the deaths. If a person
    with COVID19 die people should be accurate about the death reason.
    People can die of variety of reasons. Look for death statistics in the
    USA for 2017:

    https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/leading-causes-of-death.htm
    -----Beginning of the citation-----
    Leading Causes of Death
    Data are for the U.S.

    Number of deaths for leading causes of death
    Heart disease: 647,457
    Cancer: 599,108
    Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
    Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
    Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
    Alzheimer's disease: 121,404
    Diabetes: 83,564
    Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
    Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
    Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
    ----- The end of the citation -----

    The sum is more than 2 million in the year of 2017!
    People should be very accurate when they say about deaths "people with coronovirus" and about deaths "people of coronivirus". And the madhouse
    will look smaller.

    Bye, Dale!
    Alexander Koryagin
    fido7.fidonews 2020
    --- FIDOGATE 5.1.7ds
    * Origin: Pushkin's BBS (2:5020/2140.2)