Limiting warming to 2DEGC may avoid 80% of heat-related deaths in Middle
East and North Africa

Date:
April 4, 2023
Source:
London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Summary:
Over 80% of predicted heat-related deaths in the Middle East and
North Africa (MENA) by the end of the century could be prevented if
global warming is limited to 2DEGC, according to a modelling study.


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FULL STORY ==========================================================================
Over 80% of predicted heat-related deaths in the Middle East and North
Africa (MENA) by the end of the century could be prevented if global
warming is limited to 2DEGC, according to a modelling study published
in The Lancet Planetary Health.


========================================================================== Under high-emissions scenarios, approximately 123 people per 100,000 in
MENA are predicted to die annually from heat-related causes by the end
of the century -- approximately 60-fold greater than current figures
and much higher than predictions under similar scenarios worldwide.

However, if global warming is instead limited to 2DEGC, over 80% of
these deaths could be avoided, highlighting the urgent need for better
adaption policies and a switch to renewable technologies.

The findings come as the world prepares for COP28 in Dubai in November.

MENA is one of the most climate-vulnerable regions of the world, with
maximum temperatures predicted to rise to almost 50DEGC by the end of
the century, potentially making some areas unliveable.

However, despite this vulnerability, the impact of heat stress in this
region, which is worsening due to climate change, remains underexplored.

In the current study, an international team of researchers, including
from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), modelled
current (2001 to 2020) and future (2021 to 2100) trends in heat-related mortality in 19 countries in the MENA region. In their analyses, the
team considered variations in the levels of potential greenhouse gas
emissions over time and different socioeconomic scenarios.

Under high emissions scenarios (defined by the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) 5-8.5), most of the
MENA region will experience substantial levels of warming by the 2060s.

Indeed, under SSP5-8.5, annual heat-related deaths will rise from
approximately two per 100,000 currently to 123 per 100,000 by the period between 2081 and 2100. Although current heat-related deaths in MENA are relatively low compared to other regions (two per 100,000 compared to
17 per 100,000 in Western Europe or 10 per 100,000 in Australasia, for example), this rise is expected to be much higher than other regions of
the world under similar climate change scenarios. The UK, for example,
is expected to see a rise from current figures of three per 100,000 to
nine per 100,000 by the 2080s.

Iran is expected to have the highest annual death rate in MENA under
SSP5-8.5 (423 per 100,000), with other countries such as Palestine,
Iraq and Israel also predicted to have high rates (186, 169 and 163 per 100,000, respectively).

Smaller Gulf states, such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, will
see the greatest relative increases in heat-related deaths.

However, for the MENA region as a whole, if global warming can be limited
to 2DEGC as defined by SSP1-2.6, the team estimate that over 80% of the
total 123 annual predicted heat-related deaths per 100,000 people could
be avoided.

With COP28 on the horizon, the authors conclude that there is an even
greater urgency for stronger mitigation and adaptation policies to be
agreed upon, both at the conference and beyond, if MENA is to avoid the
worst possible impacts of future warming.

Reliance on traditional heat-adaption solutions such as air-conditioning
will not be enough, they warn. Air-conditioning, for example, is used to a relatively high extent in countries where rates of heat-related mortality
are higher than the regional average, such as in Israel and Cyprus.

As population growth in MENA will be a substantial driver of predicted
heat- related deaths, demographic policies and healthy ageing will also
be vital if MENA is to successfully adapt to a changing climate.

Shakoor Hajat, lead author and Professor of Global Environmental Health
at LSHTM, said: "Global warming will need to be limited to 2DEGC to
avoid the catastrophic health impacts estimated in our study. Even with stronger action, countries in the region need to develop ways other
than air-conditioning to protect their citizens from the dangers of
extreme heat.

"Strengthening health systems and better coordination between MENA
countries will be key in tackling the health impacts of climate change
in the region.

With COP28 coming up, discussions are needed to consider how countries
in the region can better work together to improve resilience in the face
of climate change."
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========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by London_School_of_Hygiene_&_Tropical_Medicine. Note: Content may be edited
for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Shakoor Hajat, Yiannis Proestos, Jose-Luis Araya-Lopez, Theo
Economou,
Jos Lelieveld. Current and future trends in heat-related mortality
in the MENA region: a health impact assessment with bias-adjusted
statistically downscaled CMIP6 (SSP-based) data and Bayesian
inference. The Lancet Planetary Health, 2023; 7 (4): e282 DOI:
10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00045-1 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2023/04/230404114158.htm

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