Future super cyclones would expose many in most vulnerable locations to extreme flooding

Date:
May 9, 2022
Source:
University of Bristol
Summary:
A new study has revealed super cyclones, the most intense form of
tropical storm, are likely to have a much more devastating impact
on people in South Asia in future years.



FULL STORY ==========================================================================
A new study has revealed super cyclones, the most intense form of tropical storm, are likely to have a much more devastating impact on people in
South Asia in future years.


==========================================================================
The international research, led by the University of Bristol, looked
at the 2020 Super Cyclone Amphan -- the most costly cyclone to make
landfall in South Asia -- and projected its consequences in different
scenarios of sea level rise due to global warming.

Its findings, published today in the Royal Meteorological Society journal Climate Resilience and Sustainability, showed if the release of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere continues at the same scale, more than two and
a half times (250%) the population in India would experience flooding
of greater than 1 metre, compared to the event in 2020.

Lead author Dann Mitchell, Professor of Climate Science at the University
of Bristol, said: "South Asia is one of the most climate-sensitive regions
in the world, with super cyclones causing tens to hundreds of thousands
of deaths in historical cases. Comparatively, very little climate impact research has been done in South Asia, despite the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change highlighting it as such a critical region.

"This study, in collaboration with local scientists, provides much-needed climate impact information in one of the most vulnerable regions in
the world.

It presents a critical piece of evidence in support of ramping down our greenhouse gas emissions to achieve the Paris Agreement climate goals,
where other lines of evidence all too often focus on high income countries where impacts are lower, and adaptation is more easily achievable."
The researchers, which included scientists from Bangladesh, used
sophisticated climate model projections to anticipate the scale of those affected by cyclones in the rest of this century.

Although the increasing numbers of people at risk is anticipated to be
more modest in Bangladesh, estimated to rise by 60% to 70%, this factors
in declining coastal populations in future. Encouragingly, the research
team went on to show if the Paris Agreement climate goals of 2 degrees
Celsius warming above pre-industrial levels are adhered to, population exposures to flooding dropped close to zero there.

But even in this climate warming scenario, the exposures in India
still showed an alarming increase of between 50% to 80% are expected to experience flooding in future.

The main objective of the Paris Agreement, a global framework to tackle
climate change, is to hold the global average temperature increase to
well below 2DEGC above pre-industrial levels and endeavour to limit the temperature increase to 1.5DEGC.

Saiful Islam, Professor of Hydrology at the Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET), and contributing author of the study,
said: "The latest IPCC report has mentioned with high confidence that
tropical cyclones with higher intense categories will be more frequent
in the future.

This study shows that population exposure in Bangladesh and India will
be increased up to 200% in the future for extreme storm surge flooding
(greater than 3 metres) from intense cyclones under high emission
scenarios. Hence, a strong, rapid and sustained greenhouse gas reduction
is essential to achieve goals of the Paris Agreement and to reduce losses
and damages of highly vulnerable countries like Bangladesh."

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Bristol. Note: Content
may be edited for style and length.


========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Dann Mitchell, Laurence Hawker, James Savage, Rory Bingham,
Natalie S.

Lord, Md Jamal Uddin Khan, Paul Bates, Fabien Durand, Ahmadul
Hassan, Saleemul Huq, Akm Saiful Islam, Yann Krien, Jeffrey
Neal, Chris Sampson, Andy Smith, Laurent Testut. Increased
population exposure to Amphan‐scale cyclones under future
climates. Climate Resilience and Sustainability, 2022; DOI:
10.1002/cli2.36 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/05/220509100821.htm

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