New global forecasts of marine heatwaves foretell ecological and
economic impacts
The forecasts could help fishing fleets, ocean managers, and coastal communities anticipate the effects of marine heatwaves.

Date:
April 20, 2022
Source:
NOAA Fisheries West Coast Region
Summary:
Researchers have developed global forecasts that can provide up to
a year's notice of marine heatwaves, sudden and pronounced increases
in ocean temperatures that can dramatically affect ocean ecosystems.



FULL STORY ========================================================================== Researchers have developed global forecasts that can provide up to a
year's notice of marine heatwaves, sudden and pronounced increases in
ocean temperatures that can dramatically affect ocean ecosystems.


==========================================================================
The forecasts described in the journal Nature could help fishing fleets,
ocean managers, and coastal communities anticipate the effects of marine heatwaves.

One such heatwave, known as "the Blob," emerged about 2013 in the
northeast Pacific Ocean and persisted through 2016. It led to shifting
fish stocks, harmful algal blooms, entanglements of endangered humpback
whales, and thousands of starving sea lion pups washing up on beaches.

"We have seen marine heatwaves cause sudden and pronounced changes in
ocean ecosystems around the world, and forecasts can help us anticipate
what may be coming," said lead author Michael Jacox, a research scientist
at NOAA Fisheries' Southwest Fisheries Science Center in Monterey,
California, and NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado.

Marine heatwave forecasts will be available online through NOAA's Physical Sciences Laboratory. The researchers called the forecasts a "key advance
toward improved climate adaptation and resilience for marine-dependent communities around the globe." The forecasts leverage global climate
models to predict the likely emergence of new marine heatwaves. "This
is a really exciting way to use existing modeling tools in a much-needed
new application," Jacox said.

Reducing Ecological and Economic Impacts Impacts of marine heatwaves
have been documented in ecosystems around the world, particularly in
the past decade. These include:
* Fish and shellfish declines that caused global fishery losses
of hundreds
of millions of dollars
* Shifting distributions of marine species that increased
human-wildlife
conflict and disputes about fishing rights
* Extremely warm waters that have caused bleaching and mass
mortalities of
corals


==========================================================================
On the U.S. West Coast, marine heatwaves gained notoriety following
the Blob, which rattled the California Current Ecosystem starting in
2014. That marine heatwave led to an ecological cascade in which whales'
prey was concentrated unusually close to shore, and a severe bloom of
toxic algae along the coast delayed opening of the valuable Dungeness
crab fishery. Humpback whales moved closer to shore to feed in some of
the same waters targeted by the crab fishery. As fishermen tried to make
up for lost time after the delay by deploying additional crab traps,
whales became entangled in record numbers in the lines attached to crab
traps. Recent research has also connected marine heatwaves along the
West Coast to a northward shift in California market squid, which have
long supported one of California's largest commercial fisheries.

NOAA Fisheries scientists have since developed a Marine Heatwave Tracker
that monitors the North Pacific Ocean for signs of marine heatwaves. The forecasts go a step further to anticipate where marine heatwaves are
likely to emerge in coming months, and how long they are expected
to persist.

"Extreme events in concert with increasing global temperatures can
serve as a catalyst for ecosystem change and reorganization," said
Elliott Hazen, a research ecologist at the Southwest Fisheries Science
Center and coauthor of the research. "While marine heatwaves can have
some unanticipated effects, knowing what's coming allows for a more precautionary approach to lessen the impact on both fisheries and
protected species. Understanding the ocean is the first step towards forecasting ecological changes and incorporating that foresight
into decision-making." El Nin~o-Southern Oscillation Boosts Forecast
Accuracy The forecasts are most accurate during periods influenced by
the El Nin~o- Southern Oscillation, a well-known climate pattern in the
Pacific Ocean. In fact, El Nin~o (the warm phase of the oscillation)
could be considered the "world's most prominent marine heatwave," Jacox
said. It demonstrates that the heatwaves themselves are not new.

The forecasts cannot predict marine heatwaves as far in advance in regions
such as the Mediterranean Sea, or off the U.S. East Coast. The atmosphere
and ocean fluctuate more rapidly in these areas. The forecasts provide
the greatest foresight in areas with known ocean-climate patterns such
as the Indo-Pacific region north of Australia, the California Current
System, and the northern Brazil Current.

The scientists noted that managers of fisheries and other marine life must weigh their reaction to predicted marine heatwaves based on the potential consequences. For example, they would need to weigh the economic costs
of limiting fisheries ahead of a marine heatwave against the risk of inadvertently entangling endangered whales or sea turtles.

"We're talking about the difference between making informed choices and reacting to changes as they impact ecosystems," Hazen said. "That is
always going to be a balance, but now it is a much more informed one."

========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by
NOAA_Fisheries_West_Coast_Region. Note: Content may be edited for style
and length.


========================================================================== Related Multimedia:
* Global_marine_heatwave_forecast_map ========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Michael G. Jacox, Michael A. Alexander, Dillon Amaya, Emily Becker,
Steven J. Bograd, Stephanie Brodie, Elliott L. Hazen, Mercedes
Pozo Buil, Desiree Tommasi. Global seasonal forecasts
of marine heatwaves. Nature, 2022; 604 (7906): 486 DOI:
10.1038/s41586-022-04573-9 ==========================================================================

Link to news story: https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/04/220420133613.htm

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