Assessing the impact of automation on long-haul trucking
Date:
March 15, 2022
Source:
University of Michigan
Summary:
As automated truck technology continues to be developed in the
United States, there are still many questions about how the
technology will be deployed and what its potential impacts will
be on the long-haul trucking market.
FULL STORY ==========================================================================
As automated truck technology continues to be developed in the United
States, there are still many questions about how the technology will
be deployed and what its potential impacts will be on the long-haul
trucking market.
==========================================================================
A new study by researchers at the University of Michigan and Carnegie
Mellon University assessed how and where automation might replace operator hours in long-haul trucking.
They found that up to 94% of operator hours may be impacted if automated trucking technology improves to operate in all weather conditions across
the continental United States. Currently, automated trucking is being
tested mainly in the Sun Belt.
"Our results suggest that the impacts of automation may not happen all
at once.
If automation is restricted to Sun Belt states (including Florida,
Texas and Arizona) -- because the technology may not initially work well
in rough weather -- about 10% of the operator hours will be affected,"
said study co-author Parth Vaishnav, assistant professor of sustainable
systems at the U-M School for Environment and Sustainability.
Using transportation data from the 2017 Commodity Flow Survey, which is produced by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Census
Bureau and U.S. Department of Commerce, the study authors gathered
information on trucking shipments and the operator hours used to fulfill
those shipments.
In addition, they explored different automated trucking deployment
scenarios, including deployment in southern, sunny states; deployment in
spring and summer months (April 1 to Sept. 30); deployment for journeys
more than 500 miles; and deployment across the United States.
==========================================================================
"Our study is the first to combine a geospatial analysis based on
shipment data with an explicit consideration of the specific capabilities
of automation and how those might evolve over time," said co-author
Aniruddh Mohan, a doctoral candidate in engineering and public policy
at Carnegie Mellon.
The study was published online March 15 in the journal Humanities and
Social Sciences Communications.
Long-haul trucking is generally defined as transport that covers more
than 150 miles. Several companies are currently working on developing automation for long-haul trucking that is designed to work as a "transfer
hub" model.
It would involve an automated truck completing the highway leg of the
route and human drivers undertaking the more complex suburban-urban
segments at both the starting and end points of the journey. Truck ports
near highways would be used to switch out the trailer from the prime
mover and enable this switch at both ends.
Labor accounts for about two-fifths of the cost of trucking, so deploying automated technology will be seen as an attractive option for trucking companies to save money, said Vaishnav. However, there are concerns
about the potential job losses for workers.
========================================================================== "Because trucking is viewed as one of the few jobs that give folks with
a high school education the chance to make a decent living, there is a
concern that automation will eliminate these jobs," he said. "Some people
worry that all or most of the million or more trucking jobs might be lost.
"In terms of numbers, our analysis showed that automation could eliminate
a few hundred thousand jobs (as opposed to a million or more), but there
is plenty of evidence to suggest that for most people these are fleeting, poorly paid and unpleasant jobs. We think that it is possible that the
number of operator hours lost at truck stops, because automated trucks
will have no drivers who need to be served at truck stops, could be
compensated by new employment opportunities at transfer hub ports."
The researchers also analyzed if automated trucking could lead to an
increase in short-haul driving jobs, which involve transporting shipments within a 150- mile radius, and determined that the operator hours of work
lost to the automation of long-haul trucking would not be made up both
in terms of quantity and quality by short-haul driving work. Short-haul
jobs typically pay less than long-haul jobs, the study noted, creating
the potential for a reduced livelihood for workers.
"We found that an increase in short-haul operation is unlikely
to compensate for the loss in long-haul operator-hours, despite
public claims to this effect by the developers of the technology,"
Vaishnav said. "As a result of these conflicting claims, as well as
the uncertainty over the technology itself and its limitations, there
is little clarity on how automated trucking will be deployed and its
economic and political ramifications, such as the impact on the long-haul trucking labor market. We hope to help resolve these controversies."
As part of their study, the researchers conducted interviews with
trucking industry stakeholders, including tractor-trailer operators,
to determine the feasibility of automated trucking deployment.
"A key finding was just how economically attractive this technology
would be and the fact that everyone, including truckers, agreed
that the interstate part of the job could be automated," Vaishnav
said. "Ultimately, societal and political choices can determine the
mode of deployment of automated trucking capabilities, as well as the
winners and losers of any shift to automation of long-haul trucking."
The research was supported by Carnegie Mellon University's Department
of Engineering and Public Policy and the Block Center for Technology
and Society.
========================================================================== Story Source: Materials provided by University_of_Michigan. Original
written by Lori Atherton, School for Environment and Sustainability. Note: Content may be edited for style and length.
========================================================================== Journal Reference:
1. Aniruddh Mohan, Parth Vaishnav. Impact of automation on long haul
trucking operator-hours in the United States. Humanities and Social
Sciences Communications, 2022; 9 (1) DOI: 10.1057/s41599-022-01103-w ==========================================================================
Link to news story:
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2022/03/220315121430.htm
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